Episode 168: Projections for the Yankees and Blue Jays/If the Amateur Draft Were an Auction/Lifetime Contracts for Generational Talents
Date March 27, 2013 Summary Ben and Sam answer listener emails about PECOTA’s projections for the Yankees and Blue Jays, how the amateur draft and free agency would work in an auction format, and whether teams should offer players like Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg $100 million lifetime contracts after drafting them. Topics * New York Yankees * Toronto Blue Jays * PECOTA * Auction draft hypothetical * Lifetime contracts Intro "Come and Get It" sound clip Banter * Sam notices that "about 50 episodes ago" he stopped fighting the fact that Ben says "Good Morning" at the start of the podcast even though they record in the evening. * Ben went to the Market Diner but it was closed because they were filming an episode of Elementary there. * Jason Parks followed up about the discussion of Yasiel Puig in Episode 167. The book on Puig isn't out yet and the consensus seems to be that his spring training stats are not an indicator of his true value yet. Puig was optioned to AA. Email Questions * James: paraphrases the beginning of this question. It is about how PECOTA has the Yankees finishing 7 games ahead of the Blue Jays...."There are a few counter intuitive statements PECOTA seems to be making to reach this overall conclusion. Which of these seem most/least plausible? 1) The yankees catchers taken as a whole are not below replacement level 2) Melky Cabrera is not for real 3) For 2013 Kevin Youkilis is almost as good as Brett Lawrie 4) Colby Rasmus is not about to break out 5) Reduced playing time Mark Texiera is almost as valuable as Edwin Encarnacion 6) C.C. Sabathia is the best pitcher in the division and about 3 WARP better than R.A. Dickey. 7) More than half of the Yankees perceived advantage comes from the bullpen." * Xander (Brooklyn, NY): "Auction drafts made me wonder what the impact would be if MLB were to adopt this type of format for the rule 4 draft? How would you feel about such a change? I think this would be the fairest possible manner in which to portion out talent among teams. A team scouts a player, they put a dollar value on him, and then they have an opportunity to bid on his services regardless of where they placed in the standings the previous year. If MLB wanted to continue to advantage inferior teams they could allocate each team's money on a sliding scale inversely to their record but no team would be prevented from going out and taking any individual talent if they think he's worth the investment." * Eric: "Let's pretend the draft bonus restrictions don't exist. Should generational talents (except like Harper or Strasburg) accept a lifetime contract offer of $100 million as their draft bonus? Would it have been wise for Washington to have offered it at the time? It seems that right now both contracts would have been big wins for the team but of course it was no guarantee. Does your answer depend on if it is a pitcher or a hitter?" Notes * Sam takes the over on 2 WARP this season for Melky Cabrera. * Sam thinks Xander's idea should be expanded to all free agent signings. * Ben thinks that free agents sign with a team besides the high bidder no more than 20% of the time. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 168: Projections for the Yankees and Blue Jays/If the Amateur Draft Were an Auction/Lifetime Contracts for Generational Talents * The Craziest Half-inning in History by Ben Lindbergh Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes